Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-09 0.070309 0.078897 0.087750 0.097529 0.108001 0.118854 0.130926
2025-02-16 0.052915 0.065228 0.078671 0.094308 0.111869 0.130863 0.152839
2025-02-23 0.044948 0.060089 0.077434 0.098458 0.122941 0.150262 0.182764
2025-03-02 0.038955 0.056066 0.076526 0.102208 0.133015 0.168258 0.211096
2025-03-09 0.031579 0.049209 0.071258 0.099926 0.135327 0.176788 0.228201
2025-03-16 0.025385 0.042944 0.065918 0.096824 0.136035 0.182955 0.242182
2025-03-23 0.022866 0.041235 0.066107 0.100413 0.144786 0.198686 0.267561
2025-03-30 0.020297 0.039086 0.065418 0.102633 0.151666 0.212070 0.290134
2025-04-06 0.018508 0.037836 0.065767 0.106086 0.160045 0.227304 0.315045
2025-04-13 0.015950 0.035053 0.063681 0.106023 0.163701 0.236543 0.332547
2025-04-20 0.015543 0.035671 0.066488 0.112706 0.176295 0.257189 0.364414
2025-04-27 0.013365 0.033036 0.064252 0.112154 0.179126 0.265321 0.380602
2025-05-04 0.011789 0.031356 0.063500 0.113894 0.185401 0.278408 0.403807
2025-05-11 0.009835 0.028703 0.061045 0.113063 0.188161 0.287035 0.421578
2025-05-18 0.009347 0.028814 0.063010 0.118802 0.200120 0.307895 0.455280
2025-05-25 0.008710 0.028521 0.064256 0.123452 0.210597 0.326892 0.486749
2025-06-01 0.007030 0.025702 0.060997 0.121017 0.210882 0.332196 0.500381
2025-06-08 0.005473 0.022769 0.057241 0.117549 0.209482 0.335092 0.510777
2025-06-15 0.005072 0.022539 0.058272 0.121647 0.219073 0.352939 0.540938
2025-06-22 0.004528 0.021829 0.058351 0.124174 0.226367 0.367698 0.567115
2025-06-29 0.004186 0.021591 0.059284 0.128089 0.235742 0.385379 0.597287
2025-07-06 0.003493 0.020183 0.057852 0.128020 0.239141 0.394819 0.616523
2025-07-13 0.003553 0.021064 0.060951 0.135580 0.254075 0.420362 0.657461